With the announcement in the news this week that with the surprise growth of the UK economy in November it beat expectations with a 0.1% increase and with a 0.5% growth in October, then figures might not be as bad as originally predicted.
An economy is said to be in recession if it shrinks for two consecutive three month periods. The period between July and September saw a decrease by 0.3% so if another decrease is seen in the period between October and December then we will be classed as officially in recession.
However, Darren Morgan, Director of Economic Statistics for the Office for National Statistics stated that to push the economy into recession then ‘if all else is equal, so no revisions to earlier months, for quarter four to be negative the economy has to fall by at least 0.6%’ (BBC NEWS) So hopefully with a positive October and November figure, it will stand strong enough to not put us in recession.
The encouraging figures over the past couple of months have said to have been boosted by the world cup with sales increasing in pubs and restaurants as people went out to watch the games and also the increase in Wine and Pizza Delivery from consumption at home whilst the matches were being shown.
Much of December’s figures will be riding on hospitality and retail figures which will show if we were all spending pre and over Christmas or if we were all airing on the side of caution this year. Bad weather is also another reason which can reflect bad on spending and December did see a very cold snap in the month.
So what’s on the horizon …..
There are numerous sporting events throughout the year which will draw thousands to watch on TV, some of these include the Cricket World Cup in India, The Australian Open in Melbourne, The Women’s FIFA World Cup and of course on our home turf Wimbledon.
These are just a few to mention. These events are great for the country as it proved in November with the World Cup, it helped boost the economy in Hospitality and Retail Sales.
Other major events in the UK this year will be the Coronation of King Charles lll and Queen Camilla which will be held in Westminster, London later in the year and Liverpool get to host the Eurovision Song Contest which will boost tourism in the North of England.
These are just a few of the positive events happening in the UK and around the world and I’m sure more will be announced as the year progresses. On a not so positive level the war between Russia and the Ukraine continues and the extension of strikes across various industries will and is having an impact on the economy.
We’ve had Postal, NHS, Universities, Schools, and Rail so far which all has a detrimental effect on statistics ‘The impact of strikes was partly behind falls in transport and postal
services of 4.7% and 3.1% respectively’ (BBC News). The UK is in uncertain times for the year ahead but if we could start the New Year not being in recession it would really help boost everyone’s moral and hopefully pave some positivity for 2023.
Agencies are a great way to help keep balance when times are difficult, or you have staff off or when great events are happening and you need cover during the extra busy times. So, if anything on the horizon for 2023 is making you feel like you might be a bit short staffed, then call on us, we are here to help – Full Circle Catering, Care & Education